Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM) Earnings Strategy Report – High-Conviction AI Setup

This report dives deep into TSMC’s Q1 earnings setup following a pre-announced 41.6% YoY revenue beat. Our analysis breaks down the advanced node ramp (3nm/5nm), Apple/Nvidia/AMD exposure, and the geopolitical alignment that shields TSMC from many of the headline risks plaguing the chip space.

Despite its size and dominance, institutional positioning remains light and options flow is directionally neutral—creating a uniquely clean backdrop for an upside surprise. We’ve initiated a $165 CALL position (Apr 17) targeting a post-earnings re-rate.

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Taiwan Semiconductor Earnings Analysis.pdf

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